The correlation between bitcoin (BTC) and the Dollar Index (DXY) has reached a significant milestone, with a 30-day correlation coefficient of -0.90, the most negative reading since September 2022. This indicates a strong inverse relationship between the two, where a weakening dollar leads to bitcoin gains and vice versa. The coefficient of determination stands at 0.81, suggesting that approximately 81% of bitcoin's short-term price movements are statistically linked to the Dollar Index.
Bitcoin's recent rally has stalled, coinciding with the DXY's bounce to 98.75 from its April 17 low of 97.63. The outlook for the Dollar Index is supported by broader macro risks, including elevated oil prices and the ongoing U.S.-Iran standoff. Analysts note that macro factors are still working against bitcoin's continued rally, with oil prices rising for five consecutive sessions and the Strait of Hormuz remaining constrained.
Despite sustained inflows into U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), industry leaders are adopting a cautious approach. Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, predicts that bitcoin may not experience a significant recovery until October or November, citing the current price action aligning with BTC's four-year reward halving cycle. The ether-bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio has fallen nearly 3% to its lowest level since March 15, confirming a downside break from the short-term ascending channel and pushing the ratio below the broader downtrend line.
This breakdown reinforces bearish momentum and increases the likelihood of further downside or extended consolidation in the ETH/BTC pair.