A historic stock market debut is on the horizon, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) anticipated to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. Polymarket traders predict a 65% probability of a June listing and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion.
SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with potential valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raised by these three companies could exceed $240 billion from June to year-end, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000, according to PitchBook estimates.
The influx of capital into these IPOs may lead to a rotation out of equities and a compression of liquidity in other assets, including crypto. Bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies have traded in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles, and the historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021 is a point of concern. Coinbase's listing marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, followed by a 50% drawdown within six weeks. The lesson learned is that institutional milestones often mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases the milestone is the same capital that was previously supporting the asset.
SpaceX's IPO has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation, roughly $22 billion, which is three times the typical retail share, and the company's holding of 8,285 BTC, worth approximately $600 million, in Coinbase Prime custody. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow suggests the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows. The impending SpaceX IPO is a different kind of event, priced into a market that has had five years to learn from the last one, and whether crypto treats the lesson as learned or learns it again will be visible in the tape starting roughly six weeks from now.