Bitcoin is currently trading at $80,077.04, down 3% in morning Asian trading, hovering around $77,000 as the market prepares for a week filled with significant macroeconomic events. The move is driven more by caution than a shift in market sentiment. Enflux, a Singapore-based market maker, noted that traders are hesitant to push bitcoin prices higher ahead of the upcoming rate decision and data releases, including GDP, PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index, which will shape expectations for potential Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year. The current biggest constraint is oil, with Brent crude remaining above $100, complicating the inflation outlook and making it challenging for the Fed to send a dovish signal.
According to Enflux, the market is operating under two competing assumptions: that geopolitical tensions will eventually ease, but not quickly enough to influence near-term policy, effectively pricing out rate cuts for June and creating an ambiguous backdrop for risk assets. As a result, bitcoin has struggled to break above key technical levels, trading roughly 4% below its short-term holder cost basis near $80,700.
A clear signal from the Fed that oil-driven inflation will prove temporary would be necessary for bitcoin to move decisively above this level. Otherwise, Enflux expects bitcoin to trade tentatively into Thursday's data releases, with a sharper move more likely tied to the macro prints than the Fed statement itself.
Looking beyond this week, a potential slowdown in AI demand, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, may also shape bitcoin's next moves. Listed BTC mining companies have taken on significant debt to pivot to hosting AI data centers, a venture believed to be more profitable than mining. A slowdown in this pivot could slow selling, as miners may have less incentive to sell BTC to fund capex and service debt. However, the timing of this slowdown is uncertain, and any relief from slower miner selling would come later, while sell pressure on semiconductor and data stocks due to weaker tech and risk appetite would likely bring down the crypto market.
In that sense, the AI story only reinforces Enflux's broader point: the market is stuck between competing macro forces, and any slowdown in AI demand adds another layer of uncertainty without immediately resolving the ones that matter most for price, keeping bitcoin trading in a narrow band, waiting for a clearer signal.