The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mixed trend, with bitcoin showing minimal movement despite significant fluctuations in other majors and oil prices. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decline over the week.
This stability is notable, especially as Brent crude oil prices exceeded $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed his aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the situation, Iran has stated that the country is on the verge of collapse, according to Trump's statement on Truth Social. Tehran, however, has indicated a willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
Elsewhere in the market, ether saw a 2.6% decline over the week to $2,310, while XRP fell 3.8% to $1.39. Solana and BNB also experienced losses, dropping 3.2% to $84.57 and 2.3% to $625, respectively.
The only top-10 token outside stablecoins to experience growth was dogecoin, which rose 5.5% over the week to $0.1016. As a result, bitcoin's market dominance is slowly increasing, a trend often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, bitcoin's relative calmness may indicate a shift in market structure.
"The supply overhang has finally been absorbed, and the sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was just a few months ago," Ebtikar noted in an email to CoinDesk. "Bitcoin is far less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think. Its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility, and since we're currently in a quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for the exits," he added. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where a break in the upward range that has held since late March could potentially lead to further downside.
A reversal toward $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected bitcoin's attempts since February. The Fed is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the ECB on Thursday.
The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures recovered 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude prices remain elevated near $111, exerting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion holds against the next macro shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and bitcoin will trade based on volatility rather than headlines until something triggers a fresh wave of selling. If the assessment is incorrect, $75,000 may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as expected.