According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about reducing costs, but also about capturing the upside. Hayes notes that the Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4, which introduces event trading on the platform, is only the first step. The real differentiator, he argues, is the HYPE token, which enables users to benefit from platform activity in a way that Polymarket and Kalshi do not. Hayes predicts that HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, lower trading fees, and robust technology.
Users who own the HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch a token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives. This contrast makes Kalshi the most direct test of Hayes' thesis, as users can trade event outcomes but have no path to the upside of the platform itself.