As April comes to a close, bitcoin is currently on the defensive at $80,042.47, yet historical seasonal patterns suggest that any downturns may be short-lived, potentially setting the stage for an upward movement in the coming weeks. Historical data since 2013 indicates that May has been a bullish month for the largest cryptocurrency, with seven out of the past 13 years seeing gains. The average return of around 8% is somewhat modest compared to stronger months like October and November, but it still indicates a positive trend. Following April's roughly 10% gain, the seasonal pattern suggests the broader uptrend could remain intact, supported by similar bullish seasonality in the S&P 500, which is already near record highs.
Back-to-back net monthly inflows into U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) totaling over $1.8 billion this month, following March's $1.32 billion, indicate strong institutional demand and support the bullish case. However, traders must keep an eye on bond markets, where rising yields pose a headwind to risk assets.
Analysts warn that despite these positive signs, risks such as global economic flare-ups and the impact of rising bond yields could affect the market. The impending crossover of the 50-day average price above the 100-day average, known as a bullish crossover, may signal further upside for bitcoin, though its reliability, especially in bear markets, is mixed.