Crypto Daybook Americas: What's Next?

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless stated otherwise) The new week begins on a cautious note, with Bitcoin pulling back from its weekend rally, dropping to $86,000 from $88,000. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) also declined to 2,758 points from its weekend peak of 2,816. Following a four-week losing streak marked by institutional sell-offs, the outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain. Sharp declines like this typically erode investor confidence, making a rapid recovery to $100,000 or higher by year-end unlikely. Analysts' comments reflect the cautious mood, avoiding clear predictions. "A short-term rebound is likely, but if we fall again and lose the $80,000 level, the likelihood of a more challenging period increases significantly," CryptoQuant noted in a post on X. A potential bounce cannot be ruled out, given the possibility of a December interest-rate cut in the US, with traders now assigning a 75% chance of a reduction following dovish remarks by Federal Reserve officials. "For crypto, the macro outlook is straightforward: easing inflation prints would reduce real yields and attract marginal buyers; sticky inflation or hawkish commentary would constrain risk asset liquidity. Expect volatility around these releases," said Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN. It's essential to remember that the game has changed since the Covid-19 pandemic. The post-Covid world is characterized by 'fiscal dominance/state capitalism,' where governments, not central banks, lead the charge to reduce debt-to-GDP ratios. In this new setup, governments use control over commercial banks and policy tools to direct liquidity into growth-driving economic activities that 'inflate away' debt. Assets that benefit from fiscal spending and store-of-value appeal are among the best investments currently. This marks a significant shift from the pre-Covid era, when new money flowed first to asset managers, sparking rallies in all corners of the financial markets. Investors relying solely on Fed stimulus for markets may need to reassess their strategy. Remain alert! Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. What to Watch For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's 'Crypto Week Ahead.' Token Events For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's 'Crypto Week Ahead.' Conferences For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's 'Crypto Week Ahead.' Market Movements Bitcoin Stats Technical Analysis Crypto Equities Crypto Treasury Companies ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs Spot ETH ETFs Source: Farside Investors While You Were Sleeping