A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected in June, which could divert investor interest away from crypto. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. Polymarket traders predict a 65% chance of the IPO occurring in June and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the combined capital raise potentially exceeding $240 billion from June to year-end.
This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially impacting crypto markets. Crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether, have traded in tandem with tech and AI equities, and the allocation of capital to these IPOs could lead to a decrease in liquidity for crypto. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
The 30% retail allocation for SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, could also divert capital away from crypto. Furthermore, SpaceX's holding of 8,285 BTC, worth approximately $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under new fair-value accounting rules. The impact of this IPO on crypto markets will be visible in the coming weeks, with a potential test of whether crypto can decouple from broader risk-on flows.