The consensus among retail investors is that bitcoin's current price of $80,166.08 will exceed $90,000 in the near future, potentially turning the year-to-date return positive. However, it remains to be seen whether the market will follow this trend. Santiment, a crypto analytics firm, analyzed thousands of social media posts across various platforms and found a significant bias towards a price increase above $90,000.
The crowd is dismissing mentions of lower price ranges as fear, uncertainty, and doubt. The ongoing recovery from the February low of around $60,000 is expected to continue into May, fueled by the return of exchange-traded fund flows and bitcoin's resilience in the face of recent global conflicts and DeFi hacks.
According to Santiment, this widespread bullish sentiment could be a reason to exercise caution, as overly optimistic social sentiment can often precede a bearish market performance. This phenomenon is reminiscent of the wisdom of American poet Charles Bukowski, who advised to 'run in the other direction' when following the crowd. Contrarian traders use similar sentiment gauges, such as the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey and the CNN Fear & Greed Index, to inform their investment decisions. Notably, bitcoin's recovery rally has already stalled, with prices pulling back to $77,000 from highs above $79,000 on Monday, leaving the question of whether this is a temporary pause or the start of a broader reversal.