Research suggests that a small number of traders are dominating prediction markets, with an even smaller group accumulating the majority of the profits. According to a report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs, fewer than 1% of wallets on Polymarket are capturing roughly half of all gains in key markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, just 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for nearly half of the profits, totaling around $8 million out of $16 million. This data supports previous findings that a small minority of traders drives price discovery, with around 3% of Polymarket traders responsible for most price movements.
The report highlights that this concentration of wealth does not necessarily imply wrongdoing, but rather that some traders have significant advantages, including greater capital, better infrastructure, and more effective execution strategies. The study also identifies signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets exhibiting patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions.
Solidus Labs notes that this type of trading has no equivalent in traditional finance and may be driven by incentive farming rather than pure manipulation, potentially in anticipation of Polymarket's forthcoming POLY airdrop.