A shift is underway in prediction markets, transforming them from occasional, event-driven bets to platforms characterized by daily user engagement, as indicated by a joint report from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket. The trading volume on Polymarket surged to $25.7 billion in March, highlighting a deeper behavioral change. An analysis of 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter shows that users are participating more frequently and across a broader range of markets, including crypto, sports, and politics.
The growth is attributed to the frequency of trades rather than their size, with over 82% of users trading less than $10,000 during the quarter, indicating the market's dominance by retail participants. Instead of making large, sporadic bets, users are opting for smaller, more regular trades. According to Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet's COO, 'Prediction markets are transitioning from being about capital to consistent, repeated actions. We're witnessing a behavioral shift where the market is scaling with more daily interactions, not larger trades.' Crypto serves as the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of initial activity due to its continuous trading and familiar price movements.
However, as users become more active, their participation shifts towards markets tied to real-world events. The report characterizes this evolution as a structural change, where prediction markets are no longer driven solely by major events like elections but are becoming continuous systems where users regularly track and respond to changing probabilities.
Elden Mirzoian, Polymarket's director of growth and partnerships, noted, 'As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as crucial as the underlying market itself. We're observing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.' This shift is also altering how these markets are utilized, with prices increasingly reflecting real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics, and culture, and beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis. The growth has been rapid, with monthly trading volume climbing from about $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months. Industry projections cited in the report estimate the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a long-term potential of $1 trillion.
As participation increases, the focus is shifting towards access and usability, with wallets emerging as key entry points, facilitating users to discover markets and interact with them in real-time.