As the Asian trading week commences, Bitcoin has broken through the $80,000 barrier, a milestone last achieved in late January. According to CryptoQuant analysts, this resurgence is driven by cautious buyers, as evidenced by both on-chain signals and positioning data.
Over the past few weeks, ETF inflows and leveraged long positions have fueled a steady ascent, yet the underlying demand remains inconsistent. U.S.
spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted approximately $2.7 billion over the past three weeks, thereby boosting total net assets above $100 billion and providing tangible support. Meanwhile, a recent Telegram note from market maker FlowDesk indicated a growing appetite for scaling into leveraged long positions, particularly in prominent assets like Ether and NEAR, underscoring the significant role of speculative capital in driving price increases. However, on-chain data suggests that this rally lacks broad validation.
A CryptoQuant report released on April 30 revealed that Bitcoin's April surge was entirely driven by growth in perpetual futures demand, while spot demand continued to contract throughout the rally. Historically, such divergences, where leverage expands without corresponding increases in underlying buying, have been associated with fragile price gains that tend to reverse once positioning unwinds. Prediction markets paint a similar picture, with Polymarket traders assigning a 56% probability of Bitcoin reaching $85,000 this month, but only a 23% chance of attaining $90,000, implying expectations of a gradual, rather than explosive, price increase.
Collectively, these signals indicate a rally fueled by inflows and leverage, but lacking broad conviction, suggesting that further upside is possible, albeit sensitive to any slowdown in inflows or shifts in positioning, conditions that have historically led to sharp reversals rather than sustained advances.