Noted trader Peter Brandt forecasts that bitcoin will experience a significant upswing to $250,000 by 2029, but this growth will be preceded by a lengthy bottoming process that could persist until September 2026. This prediction aligns with bitcoin's historical four-year mining reward halving cycle, which has consistently influenced traders' projections. Typically, bitcoin's bull runs have peaked approximately 16 to 18 months after the quadrennial mining reward halving, followed by a year-long bear market. Subsequent uptrends usually commence 12 to 18 months prior to the next halving.
The most recent cycle saw bitcoin peak in October 2025, roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving. If this cycle holds, the current bear market should bottom around October 2026, with a new uptrend emerging that could propel bitcoin to $250,000 by late 2029.
Brandt stated, 'I am not calling for a low until Sep/Oct 2026. It is not necessary for the recent low to be penetrated.
We could get a rally and then chop sideways to down. Worst case would be a move back into the lower green banana peel which would be into the 50s, maybe high 40s. Then blast off for $250k and a high in late 2029.' Peter Brandt, a veteran commodities trader with nearly five decades of experience, has been trading since the 1970s.
Initially, he focused on traditional assets such as agricultural commodities, metals, and currencies, long before the advent of modern electronic trading or digital assets. Brandt's perspective differs from the consensus among crypto analysts, who believe that the downtrend that began with the October peak near $126,000 ended in early February around $60,000, and that the subsequent rally marks the start of a new uptrend. Bitcoin has experienced a significant 25% increase to $80,300 since early February. It is essential to note that Brandt's forecast of no bottom until later this year does not necessarily imply a deeper downtrend that pushes prices below the February low.
Instead, prices could move in a choppy pattern of rallies and pullbacks before eventually forming a bottom. Brandt emphasized that his projection relies entirely on the market continuing to follow its historical rhythm. If price action deviates, he is prepared to reassess rather than defend a broken thesis. 'As long as the market follows the script I will stay with my projections.
If at some point the price discovery moves off script I will be forced to revise all my thinking. I will NOT be dogmatic about it as some are,' he said.