US Election Prediction Market ETFs to Debut on Wall Street

Roundhill Investments is poised to unveil the first US exchange-traded funds linked to prediction markets, with two additional asset managers preparing to launch similar products. According to a US Securities and Exchange Commission filing, Roundhill will list six funds tied to the control of the White House, Senate, and House by Democrats or Republicans. The launch is scheduled for May 5, as reported by Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.

The funds include the Roundhill Democratic President ETF, Republican President ETF, Democratic Senate ETF, Republican Senate ETF, Democratic House ETF, and Republican House ETF. The House and Senate products are linked to the control of these entities following the November 3, 2026 elections, while the presidential products are connected to the November 7, 2028 election.

Exposure is gained through swap agreements referencing binary event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated markets, which settle at $1 if the outcome occurs and $0 if it does not. The prospectus warns that if the targeted party does not win, the fund will lose nearly all its value. Roundhill will not terminate the funds after settlement; instead, once the market prices a winner above $0.995 or below $0.005 for five consecutive trading days, the fund treats the outcome as decided and rolls into the next cycle. The prospectus notes that if the market is later proved incorrect, there will be no recourse for shareholders.

Bitwise and GraniteShares have filed identical six-fund slates in February, with Bitwise using a 'PredictionShares' brand; their structures differ, as Bitwise's funds terminate shortly after each outcome is determined, while GraniteShares, like Roundhill, rolls into the next election. Political event contracts are already traded on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, but wrapping them in ETFs could expand access by allowing them to be held in ordinary brokerage accounts and some retirement accounts. This push follows the CFTC's withdrawal of a Biden-era proposal in February that would have banned political event contracts, although state regulators in Massachusetts, New York, Nevada, and elsewhere continue to challenge the underlying contracts in court. Roundhill has also filed to list non-political prediction market ETFs tied to the possibility of a US recession, as reported by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.