The US-driven bid that fueled April's bitcoin rally is losing momentum. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference between the price of bitcoin on Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has turned negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data.
This metric had consistently been positive from April 8 to April 22, during which time bitcoin's price rose from $66,000 to a local high of nearly $78,000. The premium peaked around April 22 and has since declined. As Coinbase is often used as a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading suggests that American investors are now paying less than the rest of the world, indicating they are either selling more aggressively or not participating in the market.
On-chain data supports this narrative, with the 7-day sum of bitcoin realized losses spiking to $5.97 billion on April 24 as bitcoin traded near $78,000. This realized loss is only recognized when holders sell coins below their original purchase price. The fact that the sellers were likely buyers at higher prices, between $80,000 and $95,000, during late 2025 and early 2026, and used the April bounce as an exit point rather than a reentry point, is a significant insight.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., this cohort is likely driving the increased selling activity. The combination of these two datasets suggests that US institutional buyers are slowing their bid through Coinbase, while holders are increasing their selling activity. With bitcoin recently trading around $76,000, traders are watching to see if the Realized Loss metric will continue to decline as the underwater supply is worked through. The reading has already decreased from its April 24 peak to $4.7 billion by April 28, indicating that the seller cohort may be dwindling.