Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about reducing trading costs, but also about capturing the upside. Hyperliquid's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is set to introduce a new era of prediction markets. Hayes argues that the true differentiator is the HYPE token, which enables users to benefit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hayes predicts that HIP-4 will quickly dominate the prediction market, allowing HYPE token holders to directly profit from their usage.
In contrast, Polymarket and Kalshi do not offer similar token-based incentives, with Polymarket expected to launch its own token and Kalshi's model focusing on compliance and licensing rather than token incentives. The geographic landscape also plays a role, with Hyperliquid facing fewer regulatory constraints in Asia, where its user base is skewed, while Polymarket and Kalshi face various regulatory challenges. The split between the three platforms is structural, with Hyperliquid tying usage to a token, Polymarket potentially moving in that direction, and Kalshi's model likely preventing it altogether.