According to a report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket, prediction markets are transitioning from isolated event-based bets to platforms that thrive on daily user interaction. The trading volume on Polymarket surged to $25.7 billion in March, signaling a deeper behavioral shift.
Data from 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter showed users returning frequently and participating in a broader range of markets, including cryptocurrency, sports, and politics. The growth is attributed to the frequency of trades rather than their size, with over 82% of users trading less than $10,000 in the quarter, indicating retail participants dominate the market.
Instead of making large, infrequent bets, users are now engaging in smaller, more regular trades. Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet's COO, noted, 'Prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions. We're witnessing a behavioral shift where the market is scaling with more daily interactions, not larger trades.' Cryptocurrency serves as the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity due to its continuous trading and familiar price movements.
However, as users become more active, their participation shifts towards markets tied to real-world events. The report views this evolution as a structural change, where prediction markets are no longer driven solely by spikes around major events but are becoming continuous systems where users regularly track and respond to changing probabilities.
Elden Mirzoian, Director of Growth and Partnerships at Polymarket, stated, 'As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as crucial as the underlying market itself. We're seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.' This shift is changing how these markets are utilized, with prices increasingly reflecting real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics, and culture, and beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis. The growth has been rapid, with monthly trading volume climbing from about $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months. Industry projections cited in the report estimate the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a long-term potential of $1 trillion.
As participation increases, the focus is shifting towards access and usability, with wallets emerging as key entry points that help users discover markets and interact with them in real-time.