The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, an early investor in bitcoin and author of Bitcoin Supercycle. Terpin believes that before a bull market can commence, the price of bitcoin must break above $100,000, but notes that no such support has materialized.
Despite a double-digit increase in April, Terpin asserts that the bitcoin market is still in a downturn. As the 'Crypto Godfather', due to his involvement in the industry since 2013, Terpin has founded several ventures, including Transform Group, a PR firm focused on blockchain companies, and BitAngels, a crypto angel investor group.
His pessimistic outlook for this cycle contradicts the consensus among analysts that the low of $60,000 in February marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run. Many analysts cited increased investment in U.S.-listed spot ETFs and the token's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price surge as evidence for their outlook.
In an interview, Terpin stated that the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected during Asian trading hours on Monday, with the high oil price being a factor. He explained that this is typical at this stage of the bitcoin cycle, with lower highs being rejected until the final capitulation.
Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been reached but disagrees with the timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated. Fernandes noted that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which has not yet occurred.
Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000, which he predicts will happen in October. Fernandes added that broader macro conditions could continue to negatively impact risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and a higher-for-longer rate environment. Terpin also stated that bitcoin will not achieve an all-time high this year, a view that crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan disagrees with, calling it overly bearish. Greenspan believes that given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest, a new all-time high is plausible.
Fernandes noted that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another leg down may be necessary before a sustainable base is formed.