Decentralized exchange Hyperliquid is poised to make a significant impact in the prediction market space, with its co-founder Arthur Hayes highlighting the importance of capturing upside rather than just reducing trading costs. Hyperliquid's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading, as outlined in the Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4, is expected to introduce event trading on the platform. Hayes notes that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which enables users to benefit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid's HIP-4 is likely to become a dominant prediction market, allowing users who own the $HYPE token to directly profit from their usage.
In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch a token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives, making it a direct test of Hayes' thesis.