Bonds Surpass Crypto: Americas Market Outlook

Due to Thanksgiving, Crypto Daybook Americas will not be available tomorrow, resuming publication on Friday. By Omkar Godbole (times are ET unless otherwise stated). Over the last 24 hours, the crypto market experienced a lull, with Bitcoin fluctuating between $86,000 and $88,000 and minimal movement in the CoinDesk 20 Index. In contrast, the CoinDesk 80 Index saw a modest 1% increase, indicating pockets of resilience in the broader altcoin market. Taking a broader view, the picture appears even more subdued. With Bitcoin down 7% year-to-date and the U.S. 10-year Treasury note up 2.5%, investing in bonds has proven to be the wiser choice this year, despite significant BTC purchases by digital asset treasuries. From a macro perspective, the outperformance of the 10-year bond, a traditional safe-haven asset, raises concerns for other risk assets, including stocks. This aligns with the theme discussed last week, suggesting that institutional outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs may be a precursor to a larger macroeconomic storm. Although the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a dovish message with a 25 basis point rate cut next month, which could potentially boost the market, the Dollar Index is currently seeking to establish a foothold above its 200-day simple moving average, unfazed by hopes of a dovish Fed. Options flows are not providing clear directional insight, with recent activity including a spike in hedging around the $80,000 bitcoin put and a block trade hinting at a possible range reboot above $100,000 by year-end. A $220,000 call purchase, paired with a $40,000 call buy, suggests a bet on volatility rather than a clear bullish or bearish stance. This points to a challenging trading environment in the near term. However, a recent development has gone largely unnoticed: the new U.S. bank rule reducing capital requirements for low-risk assets like Treasuries, potentially freeing up liquidity and boosting lending. James Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, views this move as a sign of impending deregulation. Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. Key Events to Watch: For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's Crypto Week Ahead. Token Events: See CoinDesk's Crypto Week Ahead for a comprehensive list. Conferences: Refer to CoinDesk's Crypto Week Ahead for a comprehensive list. Market Movements: Bitcoin Stats: Technical Analysis: Crypto Equities: Crypto Treasury Companies: ETF Flows: Spot BTC ETFs: Spot ETH ETFs: Source: Farside Investors While You Were Sleeping