In approximately six weeks, one of the largest initial public offerings in history is set to take place, and the crypto market is likely to be affected as it shares the same liquidity pool. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation. If successful, this would surpass the record set by Saudi Aramco's $29 billion IPO in 2019. Additionally, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the combined capital raise expected to exceed $240 billion, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000.
This massive influx of capital may lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially causing a compression of liquidity in other assets, including crypto. Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have been trading with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and when speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations, some of this capital may also leave the crypto market. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
The 30% retail allocation in the SpaceX IPO, roughly $22 billion, may also divert funds away from crypto. Furthermore, SpaceX's disclosed bitcoin position of 8,285 BTC, worth around $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin holding. The upcoming roadshow window in May and June will be a testable signal to see if crypto can hold up or will begin to drift lower as allocators prepare for the SpaceX subscription.