The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a period of relative calm, with Bitcoin hovering just below $77,000 on Wednesday, marking a 0.1% increase over the past 24 hours and a 0.8% decline over the week. This stability is notable, given the significant movements in other markets, including Brent crude, which has surpassed $111 per barrel following reports of a potential extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. According to a Wall Street Journal report, President Donald Trump has instructed his aides to prepare for such a blockade, prompting Iran to declare a 'State of Collapse'. Tehran has indicated that it may be willing to accept an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
In contrast to Bitcoin's stability, other major cryptocurrencies have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, and Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57. The exception is dogecoin, which has risen 5.5% to $0.1016 over the past week. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is slowly increasing, a trend that often occurs during periods of macroeconomic stress. Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, attributes Bitcoin's relative calm to a shift in market structure, stating that the supply overhang has been depleted and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market.
According to Ebtikar, Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than widely believed, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by wider market volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure to sell.
From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside. Conversely, a reversal back towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin since February. The upcoming Fed rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, and the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday, will be closely watched by traders. The US equity market has sold off in recent days due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have rebounded 0.4% in Asian hours.
With Brent crude prices remaining elevated near $111, inflation expectations are under renewed pressure heading into the central bank decisions. Traders will be monitoring whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock, and if Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer a factor, leaving Bitcoin to trade on volatility rather than headlines until a new catalyst emerges.