The price of Bitcoin, currently at $79,973.00, may be poised for a downturn despite being slightly up. Having gained less than 0.5% since midnight UTC, any significant moves towards $80,000 are likely to encounter resistance. According to Luke Deans, a senior research associate at Bitwise, short-term holders have a cost basis around $80,000, which could prompt them to sell and take profits if the price moves above this level, thereby limiting any potential gains. Additionally, the upcoming US March PCE inflation report, coupled with high oil prices and rising bond yields, may also act as a headwind for the cryptocurrency.
The recent surge in West Texas Intermediate crude to $110 and reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have kept energy markets volatile. The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate, along with the presence of dissenting voices, has further contributed to market uncertainty.
Deans notes that altcoins remain closely tied to Bitcoin, with a high correlation and beta percentiles of 97% and 99%, indicating that they may move in tandem with Bitcoin. He also observes that beneath the surface, conditions are forming that are typically associated with rising volatility, characterized by subdued liquidity and a lack of directional conviction, suggesting that price movements may be necessary to unlock new liquidity.