Gemini Obtains Derivatives License, Expands into Regulated Prediction Markets, and Sees Stock Rise

The cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, has been granted approval by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a derivatives clearing organization (DCO) license. This development enables Gemini to clear and settle trades internally, granting it greater autonomy over its prediction market products and scalability. Following the announcement, Gemini's shares experienced a surge of approximately 7%. The prediction market sector has witnessed tremendous growth, with trading volumes increasing by over 300% in 2025 to reach $63.5 billion. As a result, Gemini is now poised to compete with established players such as Kalshi and Polymarket, as well as newcomers like Hyperliquid, a DeFi derivatives platform. The company's expansion into regulated derivatives and prediction markets is expected to further intensify competition in the sector, with Wall Street also preparing to launch exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to prediction markets. Gemini's latest milestone builds upon its December 2025 launch of a prediction marketplace through an affiliate, Gemini Titan, which received a designated contract market (DCM) authorization from the CFTC. With both DCM and DCO licenses in place, Gemini is well-positioned to offer a comprehensive trading ecosystem spanning sports, cryptocurrency, futures, options, and event-based contracts. The company has expressed its intention to expand into crypto futures, options, and perpetuals for U.S. users. According to Cameron Winklevoss, this development marks a significant milestone in Gemini's marketplace expansion, aligning with the company's broader vision of creating a 'super app' for financial services. In February, Gemini announced its plans to focus exclusively on the U.S. market, exiting the U.K., European Union, and Australia, and reducing its staff by approximately 25%. The founders believe that the U.S. has the world's most prominent capital markets and that prediction markets will eventually surpass the size of today's capital markets.