A new report from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket indicates a significant shift in the prediction market landscape, transforming from event-driven bets to platforms focused on daily user engagement. The report reveals that trading volume on Polymarket surged to $25.7 billion in March, with 1.29 million wallets active in the first quarter, demonstrating a change in user behavior. Users are now participating in a broader range of markets, including crypto, sports, and politics, with more frequent and smaller trades.
Over 82% of users traded less than $10,000 during the quarter, indicating the market's dominance by retail participants. According to Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet's COO, 'Prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions.' The report suggests that crypto serves as the primary entry point for new users, but as they become more active, they shift towards markets tied to real-world events. This evolution marks a structural change, with prediction markets transforming into continuous systems where users regularly track and respond to changing probabilities. As Elden Mirzoian, director of growth and partnerships at Polymarket, notes, 'We're seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.' The shift is also changing how these markets are used, with prices reflecting real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics, and culture.
The industry is projected to reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a longer-term path toward $1 trillion, as participation increases and the focus moves toward access and usability.