The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mixed trend, with Bitcoin holding steady at just under $77,000 on Wednesday, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, especially as Brent crude oil prices have exceeded $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In response to the escalating situation, Iran has described its current state as one of 'collapse', according to a statement by Trump on Truth Social. However, Tehran has indicated its willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Among other major cryptocurrencies, Ether has dropped 2.6% over the week to $2,310, XRP has fallen 3.8% to $1.39, Solana has lost 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB has shed 2.3% to $625. In contrast, dogecoin has seen a 5.5% increase over the week, reaching $0.1016, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to experience gains over the past seven days.
As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress leads to capital flowing into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative stability suggests a shift in market structure. 'The supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were spooked by macroeconomic shifts or quantum concerns have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was just a few months ago,' Ebtikar noted in an email to CoinDesk. 'Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think; its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility, and since we're currently in a quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for the exits.' From a technical standpoint, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a crucial level, where a breakdown of the upward range that has held since late March could occur, potentially leading to further downside.
On the other hand, a reversal back toward $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The Fed is scheduled to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the ECB on Thursday. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have rebounded 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude oil prices have fluctuated between gains and losses but remain elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macroeconomic shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is gone, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered. Conversely, if the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 level may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as expected.