The US-driven buying momentum that fueled April's price surge is losing steam. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has turned negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data. This metric had been consistently positive from April 8 to April 22, during which time Bitcoin's price rose from $66,000 to a local high of nearly $78,000, before peaking and rolling over. As Coinbase is often used as a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading suggests that American investors are now paying less than the rest of the world, indicating either more aggressive selling or a lack of buying interest.
On-chain data paints a similar picture, with the 7-day sum of Bitcoin Realized Loss spiking to $5.97 billion on April 24 as Bitcoin traded near $78,000. This surge in realized losses implies that sellers who bought at higher prices are now selling at a loss, with CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. suggesting that this cohort likely entered the market between $80,000 and $95,000 in late 2025 and early 2026, using the April bounce as an opportunity to exit rather than reenter. The combination of these two datasets suggests that US institutional buyers are slowing their buying activity on Coinbase, while holders are increasing their selling activity.
As Bitcoin recently traded around $76,000, traders are now watching to see if the Realized Loss metric will continue to decline as the supply of underwater coins is worked through, with the reading already dropping to $4.7 billion by April 28, indicating a potential thinning of the seller cohort.