According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing the upside, rather than just reducing trading costs. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4, which introduces event trading on the platform, is expected to become a dominant force in the prediction market due to its large user base, lower trading fees, and robust technology infrastructure. Hayes believes that the HYPE token, which allows users to profit directly from their platform activity, is a key differentiator for Hyperliquid. In contrast, Polymarket and Kalshi do not currently offer this feature, with Polymarket expected to launch its own token and Kalshi's model built around compliance and licensing rather than token incentives.
The geography of the platforms also plays a role, with Hyperliquid facing no equivalent constraints and its user base skewed towards Asia, where crypto-native trading is already established. This contrast is particularly clear with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange that does not offer token incentives, making it a direct test of Hayes' thesis that users should be able to access the upside of the platform itself.