A historic stock market debut is on the horizon, with SpaceX's initial public offering anticipated to take place in June, drawing from the same liquidity pool as cryptocurrencies. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would surpass the record set by Saudi Aramco's $29 billion IPO in 2019. OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and potentially raising over $60 billion, respectively.
The combined capital raised by these companies is expected to exceed $240 billion, surpassing the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive influx of capital may lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially impacting the cryptocurrency market.
Crypto assets, including bitcoin, have traded in correlation with tech and AI equities, and the withdrawal of speculative capital from equities for IPO allocations could affect their value. The historical precedent of Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a cautionary tale. The upcoming SpaceX IPO, with its 30% retail allocation and material bitcoin position, will be closely watched for its impact on crypto flows.
Whether the cryptocurrency market will hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or begin to drift lower remains to be seen.