According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing the upside, not just reducing trading costs. Hyperliquid is set to introduce a zero-fee model for event trading under its HIP-4 proposal, which Hayes believes will quickly dominate the prediction market scene due to its large user base, cheaper trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure. The HYPE token, he argues, is the key differentiator, enabling users to directly benefit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. Hayes notes that 'HIP-4 will become a dominant prediction market because of Hyperliquid's large user base, much cheaper trading fees, and very robust tech infrastructure.
Users who own the $HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4.' In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, $POLY, while Kalshi's model, as a CFTC-regulated exchange, is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives. The difference in approach is also reflected in the platforms' geographical reach, with Hyperliquid facing no equivalent constraints in Asia, where its user base is skewed, whereas Polymarket is still navigating regulatory classifications in the region. The contrast is most pronounced with Kalshi, which, as a CFTC-regulated exchange, is likely to be ruled out of offering the kind of value-accrual layer Hayes is pointing to, making it the most direct test of his thesis.