A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) anticipated to draw significant interest and potentially disrupt the crypto market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raised from these IPOs is expected to exceed $240 billion, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000. This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially triggering a bearish trend in the market. The implications for crypto are significant, as bitcoin and other digital assets have traded in tandem with tech and AI equities.
When speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of that capital may also leave the crypto market, leading to a potential downturn. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021 is a point of concern, as it marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle. Institutional milestones often mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases these milestones is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset. SpaceX's IPO has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation and the company's material bitcoin position disclosed under new fair-value accounting rules.
The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow suggests the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows. Ultimately, whether crypto treats the lesson as learned or learns it again will be visible in the market starting roughly six weeks from now.