The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, a seasoned bitcoin investor and author of the book Bitcoin Supercycle. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather' due to his early involvement in the industry, believes that for a bull market to be declared, the price of bitcoin must first break above $100,000, which he thinks will happen after it hits a low of $57,000, likely in October. Despite a significant gain in April, Terpin asserts that the cryptocurrency is still in a downward trend.
His pessimistic outlook contrasts with the views of many analysts who believe that the low of $60,000 in February marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run, citing increased investment in U.S.-listed spot ETFs and bitcoin's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price surge. Terpin's prediction is based on his analysis of the bitcoin cycle, where lower highs are typically rejected until the final collapse. While market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees that the bottom has not yet been reached, he disagrees with Terpin's timeline, arguing that the market may not have fully surrendered. Fernandes believes that historically, lasting bottoms coincide with a clear exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which has not occurred yet.
Terpin insists that the fundamentals suggest a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000. Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions, including tight liquidity and a higher-for-longer rate environment, could continue to negatively impact risk assets like bitcoin. Another market analyst, Mati Greenspan, disagrees with Terpin's prediction of no new all-time high this year, citing growing institutional adoption and interest. Fernandes also thinks that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels of extreme pessimism typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another downturn may be necessary before a sustainable base is formed.