The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique scenario where Bitcoin is stagnant, while other assets are experiencing fluctuations. As of Wednesday in Asian hours, Bitcoin is valued at nearly $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, especially considering the significant rise in Brent crude oil prices to over $111 per barrel, triggered by a Wall Street Journal report stating that President Donald Trump has instructed his aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the situation, Iran has expressed its country's state of distress, while Tehran has indicated a potential willingness to accept an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
The prices of other major cryptocurrencies, including Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have declined, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625. The only exception is Dogecoin, which has seen a 5.5% increase to $0.1016 over the week. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure.
Ebtikar explained that the supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were previously spooked by macroeconomic shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side. He also stated that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policies than perceived, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by broader volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure to sell.
From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where a break in the upward range that has held since late March could lead to further downside. Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February.
The upcoming rate decision by the Fed, followed by the ECB's decision, and the US equity market's sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about artificial intelligence capital expenditure, have created a complex market environment. The price of Brent crude has fluctuated between gains and losses but remains elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macroeconomic shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer present, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered.
However, if the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 level may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget may play out as anticipated.