In six weeks, one of the largest initial public offerings in history is set to take place, and the crypto market is likely to feel the effects. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this will be the largest stock-market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. The likelihood of a June listing is 65%, according to Polymarket traders, with a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. However, SpaceX is not alone in its plans, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also preparing for public listings, potentially raising over $60 billion and $240 billion combined by the end of the year.
This massive capital pull could have a significant impact on the crypto market, as it sits in the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. Bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies have traded in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles, and when speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of that capital may leave the crypto market as well.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's listing in 2021 is a point of concern, as it marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, followed by a 50% drawdown. The lesson is that institutional milestones often mark the top rather than the starting line, as the capital that chases the milestone is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset. SpaceX's IPO has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation, which is three times the typical retail share, and the company's holding of 8,285 BTC worth roughly $600 million in Coinbase Prime custody.
The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow suggests the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.