The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, a pioneer investor in bitcoin and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather', believes that for a bull market to be declared, the price of bitcoin must break above $100,000, but notes that no such support has been seen so far.
Despite a double-digit gain in April, Terpin asserts that the cryptocurrency is still in a downward trend. He predicts that the bottom of the market will be reached at $57,000 by October, a view that contrasts with the consensus among analysts that the low point was reached in February at around $60,000.
Terpin's outlook is based on his analysis of the bitcoin cycle, which he believes is typical at this stage, with lower highs being rejected until the final collapse. However, not all analysts agree with Terpin's timeline, with some arguing that the market may not have fully capitulated yet. Jason Fernandes, a market analyst, agrees that the bottom has not yet been seen but disagrees with the timeline, stating that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of both speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, and that the market is not yet at that point. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, which indicates a price of around $57,000.
He also predicts that bitcoin will not see an all-time high this year, a view that is disputed by some analysts, including Mati Greenspan, who believes that the cryptocurrency still has room to grow this year. Fernandes also notes that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another leg down may be needed before a sustainable base is formed.