The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique scenario where Bitcoin is showing minimal movement, despite significant fluctuations in other assets. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week.
This stability persisted even as Brent crude oil prices exceeded $111 per barrel, following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump had instructed his aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has described its current situation as a 'State of Collapse,' according to Trump's statement on Truth Social. However, Tehran has indicated that it might accept an interim agreement to reopen the strait if Washington lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
Over the week, Ether dropped 2.6% to $2,310, XRP fell 3.8% to $1.39, Solana lost 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shed 2.3% to $625. The only exception among the top-10 tokens, excluding stablecoins, was Dogecoin, which rose 5.5% to $0.1016 over the week. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress leads to capital flowing into the largest asset.
Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, noted in a commentary that Bitcoin's relative calmness suggests a shift in market structure. 'The supply overhang has finally been absorbed, and sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was just a few months ago,' Ebtikar stated in an email to CoinDesk. 'Bitcoin is far less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think.
Its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility, and since we're currently in a quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for the exits,' Ebtikar added. From a technical standpoint, analysts at Bitget highlighted $75,000 as the critical level where the upward range that has held since late March breaks, potentially leading to further downside if this level is breached. A reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February.
The Fed is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the ECB's decision on Thursday. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the benefits of artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures recovered 0.4% in Asian hours.
Brent crude prices continued to fluctuate but remained elevated near $111, exerting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered. If the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 level may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could unfold as predicted.