Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, believes that Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about cheaper trading, but also about who captures the upside. Hyperliquid's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is expected to give it an edge. Hayes argues that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to profit from platform activity. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid's HIP-4 is poised to become a dominant prediction market.
In contrast, Polymarket and Kalshi do not offer similar token incentives, with Polymarket expected to launch its own token and Kalshi's model built around compliance and licensing. The geographic landscape also favors Hyperliquid, with a user base skewed towards Asia and no equivalent regulatory constraints.
This contrast is most evident with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange that does not offer token incentives, making it a direct test of Hayes' thesis.