The recent entry of Morgan Stanley into the US spot bitcoin ETF market has been seen by some as a catalyst to end the current crypto bear market, given the vast distribution power of the Wall Street wirehouse's $8 trillion wealth management network. However, Blockstream CEO Adam Back, an early contributor to the Bitcoin community, suggests that this process will take longer than anticipated. According to Back, the arrival of bitcoin ETFs is a crucial development, but institutional adoption is typically very slow. He notes that even when major institutions like BlackRock recommend allocating 2-4% of their portfolio to bitcoin, the actual implementation can take time.

Back estimates that a build-up of institutional investment could take around a year or even 18 months. He believes that the recent regulatory environment, particularly in the US, has been favorable for the industry, with the government introducing a new legislative framework for crypto and launching its own token shop. The presence of bitcoin ETFs, Back argues, has the power to transcend administrations and will likely be defended by major providers like BlackRock and Morgan Stanley. Another factor influencing bitcoin's price is its cyclical nature, driven by the quadrennial halving event.

While some commentators believe this cycle may be breaking, Back suggests that the logic of price expectations can still lead to a price slide. However, he believes that institutional flows, such as those from ETFs and sovereign wealth funds, will eventually overwhelm sellers.

Additionally, the growth of companies like MicroStrategy, which offers bitcoin-backed income instruments, will contribute to the increasing demand for bitcoin. Back also addressed concerns about quantum computing's potential impact on Bitcoin's cryptography, stating that while it may be a factor, institutions are more systematic about risk and will consider even small tail risks.

Overall, Back remains optimistic about the future of bitcoin, citing the growing institutional investment and the favorable regulatory environment.