The alleged insider trading incident involving a Green Beret's $400,000 bet on a Venezuelan raid may be just the tip of the iceberg. A recent report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) analyzed over 435,000 Polymarket contracts and $54.4 billion in cumulative volume from January 2021 to mid-March 2026, uncovering unusually high win rates for low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes. These success rates, which have exceeded 50% in some cases, are difficult to explain by skill or luck alone, suggesting that some traders may be operating with privileged information. The report's findings add to a growing body of research indicating that a small group of traders, roughly 3% of the total, drive price discovery on Polymarket, while fewer than 1% of wallets capture about half of all gains.
The ACDC report examines the June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran as a case study, where 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed in the hours leading up to the strike, resulting in profits of about $1.8 million for eight wallets. The consistent patterns of winning longshot bets in military and defense markets imply that some participants may be exploiting information advantages.
To address these concerns, the report recommends identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, restrictions on markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups, and limits on contract granularity. Ultimately, the report calls for an evidence-informed debate on whether the public should be allowed to bet on these outcomes at all.