Bitcoin is currently trading at $78,904.49, down 3% in morning Asian trading, hovering around $77,000 as the market prepares for a week filled with significant macroeconomic events. The decline appears to be driven by caution rather than a shift in market sentiment.
According to Singapore-based market maker Enflux, traders are hesitant to drive bitcoin prices higher ahead of the upcoming rate decision and key data releases, including GDP, PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index. These releases will shape expectations for when the Fed can begin cutting rates in the second half of the year. Currently, oil prices are the biggest constraint, with Brent crude remaining above $100, complicating the inflation outlook and making it more challenging for the Fed to send a dovish signal.
Enflux notes that the market is operating under two competing assumptions: that geopolitical tensions will eventually ease, but any resolution will not arrive quickly enough to influence near-term policy. This combination has effectively priced out rate cuts for June and created a more ambiguous backdrop for risk assets. As a result, bitcoin has struggled to break above key technical levels, trading roughly 4% below its short-term holder cost basis near $80,700. A clear signal from the Fed that oil-driven inflation will prove temporary would likely be required for bitcoin to move decisively above this level.
Otherwise, Enflux expects bitcoin to trade tentatively into Thursday's data releases, with a sharper move more likely tied to the macro prints than to the Fed statement itself. Looking beyond this week, a less visible force may also be shaping bitcoin's next moves. The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI has missed key revenue targets, raising questions about the pace of AI demand. Listed BTC mining companies have taken on significant debt while selling portions of their treasuries to pivot to hosting AI data centers, a venture believed to be more profitable than mining.
A slowdown in this pivot could, in theory, slow selling. However, the timing of this slowdown is uncertain, and any relief from slower miner selling would likely come later, while sell pressure on semiconductor and data stocks would likely bring down the crypto market in the short term. In that sense, the AI story only reinforces Enflux's broader point: the market is stuck between competing macro forces, and any slowdown in AI demand adds another layer of uncertainty without immediately resolving the ones that matter most for price.
For now, this keeps bitcoin trading in the same narrow band, waiting for a clearer signal.