Despite the market turmoil, Bitcoin has shown minimal movement, hovering just below $77,000 on Wednesday during Asian trading hours, with a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, given that Brent crude oil has surpassed $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has reportedly claimed to be in a state of collapse, according to Trump's statement on Truth Social, while Tehran has indicated a willingness to accept an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced significant losses, with declines of 2.6%, 3.8%, 3.2%, and 2.3%, respectively. In contrast, Dogecoin has seen a 5.5% increase over the week, making it the only top-10 token outside of stablecoins to show gains over the past seven days. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is slowly increasing, a trend that often occurs when macroeconomic stress leads to capital rotation into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calm is indicative of a shift in market structure, with the supply overhang having finally dried up and sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears having already exited the market.
Ebtikar believes that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think, and that its sensitivity is primarily a function of wider market volatility. With the current quieter trading range, there is no immediate rush for the exits. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where a clean loss could potentially lead to further downside.
On the other hand, a reversal back toward $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The Federal Reserve's rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, and the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday, will be closely watched by traders, as will the US equity market, which sold off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure.
With Brent crude prices remaining elevated near $111, inflation expectations are likely to come under renewed pressure heading into the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion will hold against the next macro shock, and whether Ebtikar's assessment is correct that the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin will trade on volatility rather than headlines until something forces a fresh leg of selling.