The yield on the 30-year US Treasury note has surged to 5%, its highest level since July 2025, prompting concerns among crypto analysts that rising yields will hurt bitcoin's value. This increase in bond yields is attributed to a combination of factors, including the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, elevated oil prices, and rising long-term inflation expectations. As a result, investors may favor bonds over riskier assets like bitcoin, leading to a potential decline in the cryptocurrency's price.
With the US dollar index also on the rise, bitcoin is already under pressure, trading at $75,670, down 2% over 24 hours. The increase in bond yields typically leads to a decrease in the value of risk assets, such as bitcoin and technology stocks, as investors seek the relatively safer and more attractive returns offered by bonds.
According to experts, the current market conditions, including rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, are likely to continue pressuring crypto valuations. The 10-year yield, a benchmark for borrowing costs, is also elevated, further contributing to financial tightening and disincentivizing risk-taking in both financial markets and the economy. The Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged, combined with internal dissent among its officials, has pushed up expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates, leading to increased bond yields. As bitcoin is often seen as an indicator of risk, it is likely to feel the effects of the current market conditions, making it a challenging time for the cryptocurrency.