Bitcoin, currently trading at $79,707.35, has dropped 3% in morning Asian trading, hovering around $77,000 as the market prepares for a week filled with significant macroeconomic events. This move seems to be driven by caution rather than a change in sentiment. According to Singapore-based market maker Enflux, traders are hesitant to push bitcoin prices higher ahead of the upcoming rate decision and a series of data releases, including GDP, PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index. These releases will shape expectations for when the Fed might start cutting rates in the second half of the year.
For now, oil prices are the main constraint, with Brent crude remaining above $100, complicating the inflation outlook and making it more challenging for the Fed to send a dovish signal. Enflux notes that the market is operating under two conflicting assumptions: that geopolitical tensions will eventually ease, but any resolution will not come quickly enough to influence near-term policy. This combination has effectively ruled out rate cuts for June, creating a more ambiguous backdrop for risk assets. As a result, bitcoin has struggled to break above key technical levels, trading roughly 4% below its short-term holder cost basis near $80,700, a level often seen as a proxy for marginal buyer conviction.
To move decisively above this level, bitcoin would likely require a clear signal from the Fed that oil-driven inflation is temporary. In the absence of such a signal, Enflux expects bitcoin to trade cautiously into Thursday's data releases, with any significant move more likely tied to the macro prints than the Fed statement itself. Looking beyond this week, a less visible factor may also be influencing bitcoin's next moves. The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI has missed key revenue targets, raising questions about the pace of AI demand.
Listed BTC mining companies have taken on significant debt to pivot to hosting AI data centers, a venture believed to be more profitable than mining. A slowdown in this pivot could potentially slow down selling. When demand for compute is strong, miners have the incentive and financing to keep building, often leading to continued BTC sales to fund capital expenditures and service debt. However, if OpenAI's missed targets signal that AI growth may not keep pace with expectations, the dynamic becomes more complex.
A slowdown in AI expansion could ease miner-driven selling over time, removing a source of supply. The problem is timing: sell pressure on semiconductor and data stocks due to weaker tech and risk appetite would likely bring down the crypto market, while any relief from slower miner selling would come later. In that sense, the AI story only reinforces Enflux's broader point.
The market is stuck between competing macro forces, and any slowdown in AI demand adds another layer of uncertainty without immediately resolving the ones that matter most for price. For now, this keeps bitcoin trading in the same narrow band, waiting for a clearer signal.