Renowned trader Peter Brandt forecasts that bitcoin will experience a substantial rally to $250,000 by 2029. However, this surge is contingent upon the market completing a lengthy bottoming process, which could persist until September 2026.

This prediction aligns with bitcoin's historical four-year mining reward halving cycle, a pattern that has consistently influenced traders' projections. Typically, bitcoin's bull runs have peaked approximately 16 to 18 months after the quadrennial mining reward halving, followed by a year-long bear market.

Subsequently, new uptrends often commence 12 to 18 months prior to the next halving. This cycle held true in the most recent cycle, with bitcoin reaching its peak in October 2025, roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving. If this cycle continues, the bear market that began in October 2025 should bottom out around October 2026, paving the way for a new uptrend that could potentially reach $250,000 in late 2029, approximately 18 months after the April 2028 halving.

Brandt emphasized that he is not anticipating a low until September or October 2026, and the recent low may not necessarily be breached. Instead, the market could experience a rally followed by a sideways or downward trend. In the worst-case scenario, the price could drop to the lower $50s or high $40s before surging to $250,000 and reaching a peak in late 2029. As a veteran commodities trader with nearly five decades of experience, Brandt's career spans the 1970s to the present, initially focusing on traditional assets such as agricultural commodities, metals, and currencies.

His perspective diverges from the consensus among crypto analysts, who believe that the downtrend that commenced with the October peak near $126,000 concluded in early February around $60,000, marking the beginning of a new uptrend. Since early February, bitcoin has experienced a significant rally of over 25% to $80,300. Notably, Brandt's forecast of no bottom until later this year does not necessarily imply a deeper downtrend that would push prices below the February low.

Instead, prices could fluctuate in a choppy pattern of rallies and pullbacks before eventually forming a bottom. Brandt stressed that his projection is entirely dependent on the market continuing to follow its historical rhythm, and if price action deviates, he is prepared to reassess rather than defend a broken thesis.