The highly anticipated IPO of SpaceX is set to take place in June, with a targeted capital raise of $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This listing, along with those of OpenAI and Anthropic, is expected to attract over $240 billion in investments from June to year-end, surpassing the combined total of all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. The influx of capital into these tech and AI companies may lead to a decrease in liquidity for other assets, including bitcoin and crypto.
As a result, traders are wary that the IPOs could trigger a bearish trend in equities and have a ripple effect on the crypto market. With crypto assets like bitcoin and ether having traded in correlation with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, a rotation of speculative capital from equities to IPO allocations could lead to a decline in crypto prices.
The historical precedent of Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a cautionary tale. The SpaceX IPO, with its significant retail allocation and material bitcoin position, will be closely watched for its impact on crypto flows. Whether crypto can decouple from broader risk-on flows and hold up through the IPO roadshow window remains to be seen.