The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mixed trend, with Bitcoin showing minimal movement while other major players are experiencing fluctuations. As of Wednesday, Bitcoin has reached nearly $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is observed despite the rise in Brent crude prices above $111 per barrel, triggered by reports of an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
President Donald Trump has allegedly instructed his aides to prepare for such a blockade, according to a Wall Street Journal report. Iran, on the other hand, has expressed its willingness to consider an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies, including Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced significant losses over the week, with declines ranging from 2.3% to 3.8%. However, Dogecoin has bucked this trend, posting a 5.5% gain over the week.
As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a phenomenon often observed during times of macroeconomic stress when investors seek refuge in the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's calm demeanor suggests a shift in market structure.
Ebtikar notes that the supply overhang has dissipated, and sellers who were previously spooked by macroeconomic shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side. He believes that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policies than widely perceived, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by broader market volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure to sell.
From a technical standpoint, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside. On the other hand, a reversal towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure and set the stage for a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The upcoming Fed rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, and the ECB's decision on Thursday, will be closely watched by traders.
The US equity market has sold off due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, with Nasdaq 100 futures recovering 0.4% in Asian hours. The price of Brent crude has fluctuated between gains and losses but remains elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be monitoring whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer a factor, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a fresh wave of selling is triggered.