The alleged insider trading incident involving a Green Beret is potentially just the tip of the iceberg, as new research from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) suggests a broader crisis. Analyzing over 435,000 markets and $54.4 billion in volume on Polymarket, the nonprofit found that low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes have success rates that cannot be explained by skill or luck alone, with some cases reaching over 50%.
This contrasts with the typical 14% success rate for such bets in political markets. The ACDC report highlights the difficulty of forecasting these markets using public information, making them more susceptible to insider trading or specialized knowledge. The research also adds to existing findings that a small group of traders, roughly 3%, drive price discovery on Polymarket, with fewer than 1% capturing about half of all gains.
The report examines the June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran as a case study, where 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed in the hours leading up to the strike, resulting in $1.8 million in profits for eight wallets.
The consistent patterns of winning longshot bets in military and defense markets suggest that some participants may be operating with information advantages. The ACDC recommends identity verification, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, and restrictions on certain markets to mitigate these issues. Ultimately, the report calls for a debate on whether the public should be allowed to bet on these outcomes at all.