A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering just six weeks away, and its impact on crypto markets is a major concern. The company filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion by the end of the year. This massive capital pull could drain the liquidity that has been supporting bitcoin and crypto markets.
As these companies prepare to list, crypto investors are bracing for a potential impact on the market, with some warning that the IPOs could trigger a bearish trend in equities and a rotation out of crypto assets. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
When Coinbase listed, bitcoin hit its all-time high and then began a 50% drawdown within six weeks. The lesson is that institutional milestones often mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases the milestone is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset. With SpaceX's IPO expected to have a significant retail allocation and the company holding a material bitcoin position, the testable signal going forward is whether crypto can hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.