The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new record high this year, according to Michael Terpin, an early investor in the cryptocurrency and author of Bitcoin Supercycle. Terpin believes that before a bull market can begin, the price must break above $100,000, which he does not expect to happen anytime soon.
He predicts that the bottom of the market will be reached at $57,000 by October. Terpin, often referred to as the 'crypto Godfather' due to his early involvement in the industry, disagrees with the consensus among analysts that the low point in February marked the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull run.
Most analysts point to increased investment in U.S.-listed spot ETFs and bitcoin's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price spike as indicators of a bull market. However, Terpin argues that the rejection of the $80,000 psychological barrier during Asian trading hours is typical of this stage in the bitcoin cycle, with lower highs being rejected until the final capitulation. Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been reached but disagrees with the timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated.
Fernandes believes that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which has not yet occurred. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000.
Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and a higher-for-longer rate environment. Terpin also predicts that bitcoin will not achieve an all-time high this year, a view that crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan disagrees with, citing the potential for institutional adoption and growing interest. Fernandes suggests that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, indicating that another leg down may be necessary before a sustainable base is formed.