The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique scenario where Bitcoin remains relatively stable, while other major players are experiencing fluctuations. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, especially considering the significant rise in Brent crude oil prices, which have surpassed $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed his aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has expressed its current state as one of "collapse", according to Trump's statement on Truth Social. Meanwhile, Tehran has indicated its willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies have experienced significant losses, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310 over the week, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625.
The only exception is dogecoin, which has seen a 5.5% increase to $0.1016 over the week, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to exhibit positive growth over the past seven days. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset.
Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, suggests that Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure. According to Ebtikar, "The supply overhang has finally been absorbed, and the sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was just a few months ago." He further added, "Bitcoin is far less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think.
Its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility, and since we're currently in a quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for the exits." From a technical standpoint, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where a breakdown of the upward range that has held since late March could potentially lead to further downside. Conversely, a reversal back toward $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The highly anticipated Fed rate decision is scheduled for later on Wednesday, followed by the ECB's decision on Thursday. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have rebounded 0.4% in Asian hours.
Brent crude oil prices continue to fluctuate between gains and losses but remain elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching closely to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion holds against the next macro shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until something triggers a fresh wave of selling. However, if the assessment is incorrect, $75,000 may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as predicted.